Understanding the First and the Second Waves of the COVID-19 in Germany: Is our Social Behavior Enough to Protect us from the Pandemic?

Muhamad  KHAIRULBAHRI

doi:10.48048/wjst.2021.22203

Authors

Muhamad KHAIRULBAHRI The Postgraduate Programme of Development Studies, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.48048/wjst.2021.22203

Keywords:

System dynamics, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Germany COVID-19 cases, SEIR model

Abstract

Like other European countries, Germany has experienced the 2^nd wave of the COVID-19 amid obligations of social distancing and wearing of face masks in public spaces. Although Germany successfully contained the virus during the 1^st wave, it has faced difficulties in controlling the COVID-19 during the 2^nd wave. This study develops a computer model representing the COVID-19 flow in Germany by comparing the effects of the measures taken during the 1^st and the 2^nd waves. The computer model is based on the SEIR concept and the system dynamics (SD) approach in which some unknown parameters are estimated through the calibration process. Moreover, the SEIR computer model is developed by considering different cases in older and young people and the SEIR model successfully reproduces similar patterns of infected, recovered, and death cases in the 1^st and the 2^nd waves in Germany. The SEIR model also shows that the measures taken in the 1^st wave have different efficacies than those in the 2^nd wave, leading to higher infected cases during the 2^nd wave. Since the SEIR model can successfully reproduce similar patterns, the SEIR model can be a basis for further studies in estimating other resource needs such as health workers, and bed capacities.

HIGHLIGHTS

The SEIR model estimates the efficacies of behavioral measures and lockdowns
Behavioral measures are less effective than lockdowns
Germany experienced higher infected cases in the first wave than in the second wave
Relaxed lockdowns lead to higher infected cases in the second wave
Lockdowns are the key to curb COVID-19 flow

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

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